There has been a ton of talk this off season about us finally posting a non-losing record and making a bowl for the first time since I was in the 9th grade. No doubt we have enough talent to make this happen. We have an explosive offense and a serviceable defense that should be slightly improved from last year. I think (conservatively) we can expect a 3 point improvement on offense (again, conservative) and a 3 point improvement on scoring defense. Compared to last season that means we'd score 31 and give up 26 on average. The 6 point swing also tips two games our way from last year and gets us to 6 wins.
So who can we beat to get to that magic 6 win total? I like to break the schedule down into three sections: Must Wins, Coin Flip Games, and Gravy. If my math is right (double check it anyway), our must wins are: NW State, Kent State, UConn, and Iowa State. We cannot lose any of these. If we do, we are forced to win more than our share of 50/50 games or get an upset somewhere else. The gravy games are against Oklahoma, Texas, and OSU. Any win against these teams (however unlikely) will just be gravy on top of our main goal this year of getting to a bowl.
The coin flip games are ones in which the winner of the game will not be a surprised. The spreads in these games will be less than 10 points so each are winnable but very losable. Below, let's talk about these games. We need to win at least 2 and maybe 3 to guarantee us a bowl spot.
Wake Forest
This article was posted on baylorfans earlier today detailing the Deacon's depeleted defense. Their offense really struggled for most of the season but I still have reservations about this game. The fact that it is the opener on the road really bothers me. Coach Grobe's program is also pretty impressive. Despite thier losses from last season, scrubs won't exactly be taking their place. WF redshirts practically everyone so the guys coming up to take the reigns are most likely going to be 3rd year sophmores or 4th year juniors. They'll have a little experience and won't be fooled easily. Last year that team was so disciplined on defense it looked like they had 13 guys out there.
Nebraska
Lost their QB, and various other important positions from last season. I think their offense takes a small step back from last season but their defense will be better. I'm glad this one will be at home. I think this is going to be a close one just like last season. Hopefully, our kicking game will be better and we'll be able to get off the field on defense. Let's hope we can get some good Halloween mojo for this one.
Missouri
Again, the loss of Maclin, Daniel, Coffman, and some starters on defense have people wrongly thinking we can just walk into Columbia and win this one. Mizzou had the #25 rated recuiting class two years ago according to Rivals so it's not like they have no talent. That class included a 5-Star QB who has no had one year in the system. If you remember from last year, the Tigers shot ahead of us 14-0 early in the game. We faught back and finally tied the game late in the 2nd half but came up short. Another game I wish we had at home, Pinkle for all he's messed up in his tenure has been pretty solid in Columbia.
aggie
You don't get points for what was done before all of the players on the field were born but sometimes it seems like you do. We haven't won in College Station in forever. Everything on paper says we should be favored and win this game but I don't even come close to putting this one in ink yet. They'll be better on offense and marginally better on defense. This is one of those games that we need to prove that we can win where we traditionally haven't. A win at the big concrete tackle box will be a nice skin on the wall and will spare us from the "haven't won there in x years" talk every season.
Tech
There's been some speculation that we could very well be 5-6 heading into this game at Jerryworld. Like Mizzou, people are seeing the close loss last year, plus losses due to graduation/draft and assuming we will win easily. Not so fast my friend. This being game number 12 for the season for both teams means that Taylor Potts won't exactly be a new starter by the time we tee it up in late November. Also, remember that Crabtree was hurt early in our game and was a non-factor and they still beat us. Tech's defense will be a little better as well. I also have a feeling that since Tech's whole alumni base is in DFW, it will be like a home game for them.
So there you have it. We need at least 2 of these coin flip games and most likely 3 to guarantee a bowl berth. My order of these from most winnable to least is: aggie, WF, Tech, Nebraska, Mizzou. Ironically, the top three are away from Waco. Go figure. Let's hope Art and boys get it done this season. I'll throw this out there as well: If we win our opener at WF, it brings 8 wins into play.
That's all I got for this week kids. I'll be back with another off season topic next week.
Murph
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